Effects of the State of the Union speech on NASA.

[LunarOrbit]

topping off at $100 billion for NASA between now and 2015.

I'm assuming he means $100 billion spread out over those 5 years, not that NASA will have a $100 billion budget in 2015.

And he directed NASA to spend a billion per year on buying rides for American astronauts aboard new, commercially developed space vehicles-that's American space vehicles."

I don't think the government should be dependent on commercial launch services. It would be like using commercial airliners to deploy troops to war zones, or making the President take public transportation.

What if the government urgently needs to launch something to the ISS (like a replacement part vital to the crew's survival) and there is a dispute over the cost of the launch vehicle? Can the commercial launcher refuse to launch until NASA pays? That would basically be extortion. Or would NASA be buying vehicles in advance and using NASA employees for the launches?

[Johno]

The elephant in the room is the capacity to launch heavy loads (100+ tonnes).  As far as I can see, the Ares V was the only launch vehicle, in service, construction or projected, with such a capacity.  Its cancellation is a blow to all space missions. 

Yeah, the commercial services could shunt people around.  And small pieces of cargo.  But that's a comparitively simple trick. 

What about lofting new, large modules into space?  Delta and Atlas won't cut it.  About the only alternative is Proton, and I thought the whole idea was to avoid reliance on other countries.

What I say at the moment is that the Obama direction would perhaps have been good if it were started before a commitment was made to a different direction.

One of my favourite comedy programs when growing up was the British classic "The Goon Show".  In one episode, the PM of Britain is confronted with a government building contract that went 10 times over budget.

PM's assistant: We can't stand for this!

PM: We're not going to.  To teach those involved in this disgusting waste a severe lesson, I have ordered the building burned to the ground, and a new one put up at the proper price!


We laugh - but the joke is on NASA.  This is exactly what Obama has ordered.

[Bob B.]

What about lofting new, large modules into space?  Delta and Atlas won't cut it.  About the only alternative is Proton, and I thought the whole idea was to avoid reliance on other countries.

Proton, Delta IV-Heavy, and Atlas V-552 all have about the same lift capacity at around 20+ metric tons.

[Johno]

Really? I thought Proton had more grunt than that.  Okay, then, let's simplify it. 

Does ANYONE know of ANYTHING other than Ares V which is out there, even (especially!) in private enterprise, that is a likely candidate for a super heavy booster?

[DonPMitchell]

The problem is that nobody needs super heavy launch service.  The only profitable business is for geosynchronous comsats and some heavy milsats, and even that is a fixed market that several companies battle over - Altas V, Delta IV, Proton, Ariane, Zenit.  There are probably too many players already, and a market that is by no means free (since Europe mandates the use of Ariane).

[ijuin]

Launches over 30 tons to low orbit tend to only be needed for lunar/interplanetary missions unless you are launching large manned modules (such as for space stations or other long-duration stuff--even Salyut 6 only massed 20-odd tons at launch). This in turn means that up till the present, only national space programs have had any use for anything that big, and it will probably remain that way until corporations start wanting to launch such missions on their own.

For the shorter term (i.e. before Ares V would become available even if the government kept full funding on it), we will likely see a Delta IV Superheavy (similar to the existing Delta IV Heavy, but with seven common core stages instead of three), which would give us about twice the payload capacity of the Delta IV Heavy. Conceivably, SpaceX could produce a Falcon IX Superheavy along similar lines someday (i.e. clustered Falcon IX first stages).

[Satanic Mechanic]

Does ANYONE know of ANYTHING other than Ares V which is out there, even (especially!) in private enterprise, that is a likely candidate for a super heavy booster?

The only one that comes to mind is Russia's Energia.  I have seen three variants of it, a medium lift, a heavy lift which hauled the Buran shuttle and a very heavy lift variant that never flew (only on paper) that was called the Vulkan.  I do not know if the Russians have any left or if they have the capability to make anymore.

SM

[DonPMitchell]

The Zenit rocket was originally the strapon booster for Energiya - 2, 4 or 6 of them could be used.  The core stage was similar to the shuttle fuel tank, but the Russian version of the SSME was on the core instead of on the shuttle.  Obviously the Zenit lives on, but I think it would be tough for them to build a full Energiya, just like it would be hard for us to build a Saturn V now.

Russia is also upgrading the Proton to burn Kerosene/LOX.  This will be the Angara, and I'm not sure what the status is.  I get the impression that Russia is facing some trouble as their generation of engineers ages and is not replaced with people of equal quality or quantity.