Effects of the State of the Union speech on NASA.

[Satanic Mechanic]

Today we will hear the state of the union speech.  I don't know about anyone else, but I have a bad feeling about these suggested budget "freezes" and budget cutbacks for NASA.  I hope this will not be the end of a manned spaceflight program for us Americans.

SM

[DonPMitchell]

Maybe President Palin will restore NASA's budget in 2012. 

[LunarOrbit]

Accord to NASA Watch they're going to scrap the plan to return to the moon. I don't know what NASA will be doing instead...

From Wayne Hale on Twitter:

Today, astronomers tell us, Mars is at its closest point to the earth. Today, politicians tell us, Mars is at its farthest.

Visiting LC 34 at sunrise. It would be a shame to end America's human spaceflight on this day.

I certainly hope NASA's role in manned spaceflight doesn't end on the anniversary of the Apollo 1 fire.

[spacecat27]

Of course there was no mention of NASA or space in the State of the Union Address-- and barring an alien invasion, I think it's a safe bet that space will never again be mentioned in a State of the Union Address.

While I notice other space sites going crazy with 'leaks from the White House' stating US human spaceflight is about to be terminated, there is apparently an increase of 5.9 billion over 5 years proposed in the NASA budget.  

For a President whose big focus now seems to be 'job creation,' I can't imagine him shutting down or scaling back NASA and putting thousands more on the unemployment lines.... but stranger things have happened.

Bolden has stated in several different ways that he accepted the NASA Administrator job only on the condition he be 'given something meaningful to do,' so let's hope something meaningful happens regardless of what the 'leaks' say.

Unfortunately, given this Administration's record for actually doing anything-- I fear no new directions for NASA will be announced until well after the Shuttle Program has shut down.  That will be too late- because 'now' is already too late.  They've had months to digest the Augustine findings & recommendations, and still nothing is clear.

I understand "the economy" is the high priority, but both political parties never seem to grasp that a healthy Space Program would stimulate the economy; and that shutting space down would hurt more than it could help.  Four decades later, I'm still looking for anyone who can show me how our country is better because Apollos 18 - 20 were cancelled!

[DonPMitchell]

With all the emphasis on science and engineering, it would certainly be odd to shut down NASA.  From the "leaks" I've seen, most of the new money allocated to NASA will be consumed by ISS.  Let's hope there will still be some money left for science missions.

[ijuin]

On the other hand, once the Shuttle is shut down, there will be more psychological pressure to get a new vehicle launch-ready (whether it's Orion or Dragon or whatever), simply because of the realization of "OMG the USA has no access to space". This urgency won't be fully felt by politicians as long as the Shuttle is still on the table.This is rather like how the Nixon (and Ford) administrations felt no urgency to get the Shuttle flight-ready until after they realized that the previous Apollo hardware had run out (Skylab and Apollo-Soyuz) and that there would be NOTHING manned until the Shuttle could be ready. Of course, this still means we probably won't see any manned launches till 2016 or so, but the politicians won't stop procrastinating until they actually SEE that "we got nothing".

Personally, I think that the number one reasonably-likely-to-happen thing that could convince the US government to pour lots of money into NASA (as in "a budget exceeding $30 billion in 2010 dollars") would be if China mounts a credible manned lunar program (especially if said program includes a long-term lunar outpost). If China claimed that they would put men on the Moon by 2020 and the USA believed them, then you can be sure that a NASA astronaut will be there first to offer the Taikonauts a broom to brush off the moon dust from their suits.

In sum, getting funds for NASA is all about making the majority of Congress (or the President himself) seriously believe that giving more money to NASA will gain more political points (and money/jobs/influence for their district) than spending the money on the military, roads, or the multitude of other multi-billion-dollar projects that are routinely approved. For comparison, the war in Iraq has officially eaten up more money than NASA's entire existence from the 1950s till the present, and unofficially has cost even more than that, which just goes to show you where political priorities lie.

[Satanic Mechanic]

Unfortunately, given this Administration's record for actually doing anything-- I fear no new directions for NASA will be announced until well after the Shuttle Program has shut down.  That will be too late- because 'now' is already too late.  They've had months to digest the Augustine findings & recommendations, and still nothing is clear.

I understand "the economy" is the high priority, but both political parties never seem to grasp that a healthy Space Program would stimulate the economy; and that shutting space down would hurt more than it could help.  Four decades later, I'm still looking for anyone who can show me how our country is better because Apollos 18 - 20 were cancelled!

Agreed.  I think the 8 billion for a rail line from Tampa to Mouse World would be better used for NASA not tourism.  That 8 billion would bring in tech jobs which are higher paying than service jobs.  When high tech jobs are created, many more service jobs are created as a result.  That is what surprised me most about Orlando, just like Vegas, an entire economy is based on tourism.  Service economies cannot sustain themselves without some sort of manufacturing/high tech industry.
I am afraid of the loss of the shuttle jobs.  All that knowledge will dissapear like when Apollo transitioned to the shuttle program.  I wish the administration would get off their collective asses and choose now one of the programs suggested by the Augustine commission.  

SM

Additional- I am offended that Obama announced leaving us in Low Earth Orbit during this week of Remembrance at NASA.

[spacecat27]

Interesting note on "high speed" rail lines-- Former Flight Director, John Hodge, went to the DOT after he left NASA where he was involved with multiple studies of exotic high speed train concepts.  His conclusion- they can never be profitable in the US; anything built will always need to rely on government subsidies. 
I don't know how these systems fare economically in Europe or Japan, but I suspect they too are government-supported.  Hodge's team looked at all kinds of possibilities--- easy pick up and drop off of electric auto rentals at rail stops, that could be incorporated into ticket prices, etc., etc.....  They could never get the numbers to justify the costs, no matter how "easy" they made it for consumers.

[Satanic Mechanic]

I don't know how these systems fare economically in Europe or Japan, but I suspect they too are government-supported. 

The bullet train in Japan is heavily subsidized.  I am sure the one in Europe is too.

[DonPMitchell]

Well, the Russians built a Soyuz launch site for the ESA, I'm sure they'd build one for us in Florida.  :-/

[ijuin]

I don't know how these systems fare economically in Europe or Japan, but I suspect they too are government-supported. 

The bullet train in Japan is heavily subsidized.  I am sure the one in Europe is too.

Beyond that, Japan has population densities only found in the Northeast Corridor and the San Francisco-San Diego coastal route in the USA--it's a country the size of California but with over 110 million people in it. In the USA, major cities can be hundreds of kilometers away from anything that's worth building a rail line to. What Americans need for transportation isn't rails, it's easier aircraft access--currently you have to spend more time getting through luggage check-in and claims and security checks than you actually spend in the air, and the hub-and-spoke planning model means that you only get a nonstop flight if one end of your flight is a "hub" airport.

[dcsugeek]

It will be interesting at work Monday! Not sure if congress can turn this around, is there hope?

[spacecat27]

Well, this is encouraging-
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2010/01/maf-provide-positive-et-hardware-overview-for-early-sd-hlv-test-flight/

Maybe Charlie Bolden will have 'something meaningful to do' after all.  
and like dcsu says, hope congress doesn't shoot it down for spite.
Guess we'll get the full story tomorrow. 

[ijuin]

Man-rating an EELV such as the Delta IV Heavy will probably take more time but less tax money than continuing with the Ares I. I agree that if something must be cut from the program, it's the "stick" rocket that is semi-redundant with existing commercial launchers that should go, while keeping the manned spacecraft itself and the big 100-plus-tons-to-LEO rocket.

How very strange that NASA is now considering the DIRECT proposal, after spending so long scoffing at it.

[Satanic Mechanic]

Man-rating an EELV such as the Delta IV Heavy will probably take more time but less tax money than continuing with the Ares I. I agree that if something must be cut from the program, it's the "stick" rocket that is semi-redundant with existing commercial launchers that should go, while keeping the manned spacecraft itself and the big 100-plus-tons-to-LEO rocket.

How very strange that NASA is now considering the DIRECT proposal, after spending so long scoffing at it.

I have heard many opinions that it would take one to three years to man-rate the D-IVH.  I believe most of that time would be spent making the RS-68B (was it B or R?).
The reason why NASA is looking at the Direct and SDLV is the people who were pro-Ares-I are gone.  I would love to see one of the Jupiter variants picked as a program for heavy lift capabilities but I would be happy with the D-IVH.  So long as the program is picked soon.  The government is quick to cancel the moon program but slow to get select the Low Earth Orbit program.

I am concerned about the status of Orion.  All this talk about the lift vehicle and not a word about the spacecraft.  Will work continue?

SM